USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Loudoun United at 39%, the draw at 23% and Charleston Battery at 38%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.66.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Loudoun United have 9 in 17 this season (6 of 10 at home), Charleston Battery 11 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Loudoun United and 1.66 for Charleston Battery. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudoun United | 17 | 53% | 53% | 65% |
| Charleston Battery | 18 | 61% | 44% | 50% |
More: Loudoun United season stats · Charleston Battery season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.