Eliteserien · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Lillestrom at 53%, the draw at 24% and Rosenborg at 23%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lillestrom have 8 in 15 this season (6 of 7 at home), Rosenborg 8 in 15 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Lillestrom and 1 for Rosenborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 15 | 53% | 33% | 40% |
| Rosenborg | 15 | 53% | 27% | 33% |
More: Lillestrom season stats · Rosenborg season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.