Veikkausliiga · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts KuPS at 66%, the draw at 21% and Turku PS at 13%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 0.73.
The league sets the starting point. Veikkausliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KuPS have 8 in 18 this season (5 of 9 at home), Turku PS 9 in 18 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.92 for KuPS and 0.73 for Turku PS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: KuPS season stats · Turku PS season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.