Ykkosliiga · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Klubi-04 at 24%, the draw at 26% and Kooteepee at 50%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Klubi-04 have 4 in 17 this season (2 of 8 at home), Kooteepee 8 in 17 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Klubi-04 and 1.5 for Kooteepee. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Klubi-04 season stats · Kooteepee season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.