Brasileirao (W) · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Juventude W at 43%, the draw at 31% and Mixto W at 26%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Juventude W have 4 in 14 this season (1 of 6 at home), Mixto W 7 in 14 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Juventude W and 0.77 for Mixto W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude W | 14 | 29% | 14% | 21% |
| Mixto W | 14 | 50% | 21% | 43% |
More: Juventude W season stats · Mixto W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.