Ekstraklasa · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Jagiellonia at 50%, the draw at 26% and Widzew Łódź at 24%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jagiellonia have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Widzew Łódź 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Jagiellonia and 0.94 for Widzew Łódź. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Widzew Łódź | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Jagiellonia season stats · Widzew Łódź season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.