USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Indy Eleven at 40%, the draw at 29% and Hartford Athletic at 31%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Indy Eleven have 7 in 16 this season (4 of 8 at home), Hartford Athletic 6 in 17 (2 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Indy Eleven and 1 for Hartford Athletic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 16 | 44% | 31% | 50% |
| Hartford Athletic | 17 | 35% | 18% | 24% |
More: Indy Eleven season stats · Hartford Athletic season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.