Liga Profesional · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Independiente at 55%, the draw at 27% and Platense at 19%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 0.73.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Independiente have 7 in 20 this season (3 of 9 at home), Platense 6 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Independiente and 0.73 for Platense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 20 | 35% | 20% | 60% |
| Platense | 19 | 32% | 16% | 37% |
More: Independiente season stats · Platense season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.