Primera Nacional · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Godoy Cruz at 58%, the draw at 26% and Chaco For Ever at 16%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 0.64.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Godoy Cruz have 8 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Chaco For Ever 6 in 22 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Godoy Cruz and 0.64 for Chaco For Ever. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 22 | 36% | 18% | 45% |
| Chaco For Ever | 22 | 27% | 14% | 45% |
More: Godoy Cruz season stats · Chaco For Ever season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.