USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Tulsa at 49%, the draw at 29% and Detroit City at 22%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Tulsa have 5 in 17 this season (2 of 10 at home), Detroit City 9 in 17 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.28 for FC Tulsa and 0.77 for Detroit City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tulsa | 17 | 29% | 18% | 41% |
| Detroit City | 17 | 53% | 12% | 53% |
More: FC Tulsa season stats · Detroit City season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.