Super League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts FC ST. Gallen at 47%, the draw at 23% and FC Luzern at 30%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.35.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC ST. Gallen have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), FC Luzern 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 71% and 80%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 38%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.73 for FC ST. Gallen and 1.35 for FC Luzern. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| FC Luzern | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
More: FC ST. Gallen season stats · FC Luzern season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.