Super League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Basel 1893 at 26%, the draw at 25% and FC Thun at 49%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Basel 1893 have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), FC Thun 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.08 for FC Basel 1893 and 1.57 for FC Thun. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Basel 1893 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Thun | 2 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
More: FC Basel 1893 season stats · FC Thun season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.