Primera Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–4 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts FBC Melgar at 68%, the draw at 19% and FC Cajamarca at 12%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FBC Melgar have 12 in 20 this season (7 of 10 at home), FC Cajamarca 11 in 20 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.1 for FBC Melgar and 0.77 for FC Cajamarca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 20 | 60% | 40% | 70% |
| FC Cajamarca | 20 | 55% | 35% | 65% |
More: FBC Melgar season stats · FC Cajamarca season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.