Premier League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 23%, the draw at 23% and Shakhtar Donetsk at 53%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.78.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have 1 in 1 this season (1 of 1 at home), Shakhtar Donetsk 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.78 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi season stats · Shakhtar Donetsk season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.