USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts El Paso Locomotive at 37%, the draw at 19% and Oakland Roots at 44%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 2.35.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. El Paso Locomotive have 11 in 18 this season (5 of 8 at home), Oakland Roots 10 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 2.15 for El Paso Locomotive and 2.35 for Oakland Roots. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 18 | 61% | 39% | 61% |
| Oakland Roots | 19 | 53% | 37% | 63% |
More: El Paso Locomotive season stats · Oakland Roots season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.