Primera A · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Pasto at 41%, the draw at 30% and Deportivo Cali at 29%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Pasto have 13 in 24 this season (5 of 12 at home), Deportivo Cali 5 in 21 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.91 for Deportivo Cali. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 24 | 54% | 25% | 54% |
| Deportivo Cali | 21 | 24% | 10% | 38% |
More: Deportivo Pasto season stats · Deportivo Cali season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.