Primera Nacional · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 3–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Moron at 70%, the draw at 22% and Acassuso at 9%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 0.45.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Moron have 10 in 22 this season (4 of 11 at home), Acassuso 6 in 22 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Deportivo Moron and 0.45 for Acassuso. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moron | 22 | 45% | 23% | 45% |
| Acassuso | 22 | 27% | 9% | 27% |
More: Deportivo Moron season stats · Acassuso season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.