Primera A · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Deportes Tolima at 71%, the draw at 18% and Internacional de Bogota at 11%, from expected goals of 2.17 and 0.72.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportes Tolima have 10 in 26 this season (6 of 14 at home), Internacional de Bogota 14 in 23 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.17 for Deportes Tolima and 0.72 for Internacional de Bogota. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 26 | 38% | 27% | 50% |
| Internacional de Bogota | 23 | 61% | 30% | 61% |
More: Deportes Tolima season stats · Internacional de Bogota season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.