Primera Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Defensor Sporting at 48%, the draw at 25% and Wanderers at 27%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Defensor Sporting have 6 in 22 this season (4 of 11 at home), Wanderers 12 in 23 (8 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Defensor Sporting and 1.1 for Wanderers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 22 | 27% | 0% | 55% |
| Wanderers | 23 | 52% | 17% | 52% |
More: Defensor Sporting season stats · Wanderers season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.