Serie B · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Cuiaba at 44%, the draw at 31% and Fortaleza EC at 25%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 0.78.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cuiaba have 3 in 20 this season (1 of 10 at home), Fortaleza EC 9 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Cuiaba and 0.78 for Fortaleza EC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 20 | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Fortaleza EC | 20 | 45% | 15% | 35% |
More: Cuiaba season stats · Fortaleza EC season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.