Serie A · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Coritiba at 48%, the draw at 28% and Chapecoense-sc at 24%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Coritiba have 9 in 21 this season (3 of 10 at home), Chapecoense-sc 10 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Coritiba and 0.88 for Chapecoense-sc. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 21 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 50% | 35% | 60% |
More: Coritiba season stats · Chapecoense-sc season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.