Primera Clausura · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 43%, the draw at 26% and Sportivo Luqueno at 31%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Sportivo Luqueno 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 40% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.14 for Sportivo Luqueno. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Sportivo Luqueno | 3 | 100% | 33% | 67% |
More: Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · Sportivo Luqueno season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.