First League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Cherno More Varna at 14%, the draw at 22% and Ludogorets at 64%, from expected goals of 0.68 and 1.79.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cherno More Varna have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Ludogorets 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 40% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 22%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 0.68 for Cherno More Varna and 1.79 for Ludogorets. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Ludogorets | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Cherno More Varna season stats · Ludogorets season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.