Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Breidablik at 51%, the draw at 20% and Valur Reykjavik at 29%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.64.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breidablik have 11 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Valur Reykjavik 12 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Breidablik and 1.64 for Valur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 17 | 65% | 47% | 65% |
| Valur Reykjavik | 17 | 71% | 53% | 71% |
More: Breidablik season stats · Valur Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.