Premier League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Atyrau at 30%, the draw at 29% and Aktobe at 41%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atyrau have 4 in 19 this season (2 of 9 at home), Aktobe 9 in 20 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Atyrau and 1.18 for Aktobe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Atyrau season stats · Aktobe season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.