Serie B · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Athletic Club at 25%, the draw at 33% and Criciuma at 42%, from expected goals of 0.73 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Athletic Club have 5 in 20 this season (2 of 10 at home), Criciuma 4 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 0.73 for Athletic Club and 1.03 for Criciuma. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 20 | 25% | 5% | 60% |
| Criciuma | 20 | 20% | 10% | 45% |
More: Athletic Club season stats · Criciuma season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.