Primera A · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Alianza Valledupar at 35%, the draw at 31% and Bucaramanga at 33%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Primera A has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Alianza Valledupar have 7 in 21 this season (3 of 11 at home), Bucaramanga 10 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Alianza Valledupar and 0.95 for Bucaramanga. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 21 | 33% | 14% | 48% |
| Bucaramanga | 22 | 45% | 18% | 50% |
More: Alianza Valledupar season stats · Bucaramanga season stats · Primera A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.