NWSL (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 3–4 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Washington Spirit W at 48%, the draw at 26% and North Carolina Courage W at 26%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Washington Spirit W have 7 in 18 this season (3 of 8 at home), North Carolina Courage W 12 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Washington Spirit W and 1 for North Carolina Courage W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Spirit W | 18 | 39% | 17% | 39% |
| North Carolina Courage W | 17 | 71% | 41% | 53% |
More: Washington Spirit W season stats · North Carolina Courage W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.