2. Liga · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 4–2 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Sturm Graz II at 10%, the draw at 19% and Floridsdorfer AC at 71%, from expected goals of 0.64 and 2.07.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sturm Graz II have 1 in 1 this season, Floridsdorfer AC 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 0.64 for Sturm Graz II and 2.07 for Floridsdorfer AC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Floridsdorfer AC | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Sturm Graz II season stats · Floridsdorfer AC season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.