Eliteserien · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Start at 45%, the draw at 26% and Fredrikstad at 29%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Start have 10 in 16 this season (3 of 7 at home), Fredrikstad 9 in 15 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Start and 1.09 for Fredrikstad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 16 | 63% | 25% | 69% |
| Fredrikstad | 15 | 60% | 33% | 60% |
More: Start season stats · Fredrikstad season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.