Pro League · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts St. Truiden at 55%, the draw at 23% and Lommel United at 22%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. St. Truiden have 0 in 0 this season, Lommel United 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.79 for St. Truiden and 1.06 for Lommel United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lommel United | 0 | — | — | — |
More: St. Truiden season stats · Lommel United season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.