Ykkosliiga · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts SJK Akatemia at 13%, the draw at 32% and PK-35 at 56%, from expected goals of 0.4 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SJK Akatemia have 4 in 17 this season (0 of 8 at home), PK-35 7 in 17 (2 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 21%, from expected goals of 0.4 for SJK Akatemia and 1.18 for PK-35. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK Akatemia | 17 | 24% | 12% | 29% |
| PK-35 | 17 | 41% | 29% | 41% |
More: SJK Akatemia season stats · PK-35 season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.