3. Liga · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 61% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 44%, the draw at 24% and Fortuna Köln at 32%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have 0 in 0 this season, Fortuna Köln 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.75 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.45 for Fortuna Köln. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 0 | — | — | — |
| Fortuna Köln | 0 | — | — | — |
More: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach season stats · Fortuna Köln season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.