2. Liga · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz at 46%, the draw at 24% and SV Kapfenberg at 30%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have 1 in 1 this season, SV Kapfenberg 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and 1.31 for SV Kapfenberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| SV Kapfenberg | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
More: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz season stats · SV Kapfenberg season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.