HNL · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–6 (half-time 0–4). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Rudes at 39%, the draw at 27% and NK Osijek at 34%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rudes have 1 in 1 this season, NK Osijek 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Rudes and 1.19 for NK Osijek. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudes | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| NK Osijek | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: NK Osijek season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.