League One · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Ross County at 50%, the draw at 24% and Montrose at 27%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ross County have 0 in 1 this season, Montrose 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.73 for Ross County and 1.21 for Montrose. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross County | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Montrose | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
More: Ross County season stats · Montrose season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.