NWSL (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Orlando Pride W at 61%, the draw at 20% and Racing Louisville W at 18%, from expected goals of 2.09 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orlando Pride W have 10 in 18 this season (5 of 9 at home), Racing Louisville W 12 in 17 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 2.09 for Orlando Pride W and 1.05 for Racing Louisville W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pride W | 18 | 56% | 28% | 44% |
| Racing Louisville W | 17 | 71% | 35% | 71% |
More: Orlando Pride W season stats · Racing Louisville W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.