Allsvenskan · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 3–4 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Orgryte IS at 31%, the draw at 25% and AIK Stockholm at 44%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orgryte IS have 8 in 15 this season (4 of 7 at home), AIK Stockholm 9 in 15 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Orgryte IS and 1.51 for AIK Stockholm. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte IS | 15 | 53% | 33% | 47% |
| AIK Stockholm | 15 | 60% | 13% | 60% |
More: Orgryte IS season stats · AIK Stockholm season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.