HNL · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 38%, the draw at 26% and HNK Gorica at 36%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 1 in 1 this season, HNK Gorica 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.33 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.29 for HNK Gorica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| HNK Gorica | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb season stats · HNK Gorica season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.