NWSL (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 34%, the draw at 32% and San Diego Wave W at 35%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NJ/NY Gotham FC W have 5 in 18 this season (2 of 9 at home), San Diego Wave W 7 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 0.96 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 0.98 for San Diego Wave W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 18 | 28% | 17% | 28% |
| San Diego Wave W | 18 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
More: NJ/NY Gotham FC W season stats · San Diego Wave W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.