MLS · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts New England Revolution at 44%, the draw at 25% and Houston Dynamo at 31%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. New England Revolution have 11 in 17 this season (7 of 10 at home), Houston Dynamo 7 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.54 for New England Revolution and 1.25 for Houston Dynamo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 17 | 65% | 29% | 59% |
| Houston Dynamo | 17 | 41% | 24% | 41% |
More: New England Revolution season stats · Houston Dynamo season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.