Primera Division · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | no pick |
The result model puts Juan Pablo II College at 48%, the draw at 27% and Atletico Grau at 25%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Juan Pablo II College have 13 in 20 this season (6 of 10 at home), Atletico Grau 6 in 20 (2 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Juan Pablo II College and 0.94 for Atletico Grau. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo II College | 20 | 65% | 40% | 70% |
| Atletico Grau | 20 | 30% | 20% | 30% |
More: Juan Pablo II College season stats · Atletico Grau season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.