K League 1 · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Jeonbuk Motors at 47%, the draw at 28% and Jeju United FC at 25%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Jeonbuk Motors have 7 in 21 this season (6 of 10 at home), Jeju United FC 8 in 21 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 22%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.93 for Jeju United FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors | 21 | 33% | 19% | 43% |
| Jeju United FC | 21 | 38% | 5% | 57% |
More: Jeonbuk Motors season stats · Jeju United FC season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.