Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Forge at 54%, the draw at 26% and Vancouver FC at 20%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 0.83.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Forge have 6 in 14 this season (1 of 6 at home), Vancouver FC 7 in 15 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 64%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Forge and 0.83 for Vancouver FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | 14 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| Vancouver FC | 15 | 47% | 33% | 53% |
More: Forge season stats · Vancouver FC season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.