Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Ferroviaria W at 48%, the draw at 28% and Palmeiras W at 24%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferroviaria W have 5 in 14 this season (3 of 7 at home), Palmeiras W 10 in 14 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Ferroviaria W and 0.85 for Palmeiras W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferroviaria W | 14 | 36% | 21% | 50% |
| Palmeiras W | 14 | 71% | 29% | 50% |
More: Ferroviaria W season stats · Palmeiras W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.