K League 1 · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Anyang at 25%, the draw at 24% and Daejeon Citizen at 51%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.65.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Anyang have 9 in 21 this season (4 of 10 at home), Daejeon Citizen 7 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.08 for FC Anyang and 1.65 for Daejeon Citizen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Anyang | 21 | 43% | 24% | 76% |
| Daejeon Citizen | 21 | 33% | 29% | 43% |
More: FC Anyang season stats · Daejeon Citizen season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.