Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 8–0 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 8, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Djurgården W at 64%, the draw at 21% and Uppsala W at 15%, from expected goals of 1.96 and 0.82.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Djurgården W have 6 in 12 this season (1 of 5 at home), Uppsala W 9 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.96 for Djurgården W and 0.82 for Uppsala W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgården W | 12 | 50% | 17% | 42% |
| Uppsala W | 12 | 75% | 50% | 42% |
More: Djurgården W season stats · Uppsala W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.