Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Dinamo Batumi at 42%, the draw at 25% and Gagra at 33%, from expected goals of 1.54 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Batumi have 13 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Gagra 8 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.54 for Dinamo Batumi and 1.32 for Gagra. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Batumi | 19 | 68% | 37% | 63% |
| Gagra | 19 | 42% | 5% | 58% |
More: Dinamo Batumi season stats · Gagra season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.