Liga Profesional · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 79% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6% | 94% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 33% | 67% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Riestra at 32%, the draw at 44% and Estudiantes L.P. at 23%, from expected goals of 0.61 and 0.47.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Riestra have 2 in 19 this season (1 of 10 at home), Estudiantes L.P. 5 in 20 (1 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 22% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 24%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 10%, from expected goals of 0.61 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.47 for Estudiantes L.P.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 20%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 19 | 11% | 0% | 21% |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 20 | 25% | 5% | 20% |
More: Deportivo Riestra season stats · Estudiantes L.P. season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.