Primera · Saturday, 8 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Coquimbo Unido at 65%, the draw at 20% and D. La Serena at 15%, from expected goals of 2.08 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Coquimbo Unido have 9 in 16 this season (3 of 7 at home), D. La Serena 10 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 2.08 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.89 for D. La Serena. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 16 | 56% | 38% | 63% |
| D. La Serena | 17 | 59% | 47% | 59% |
More: Coquimbo Unido season stats · D. La Serena season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.